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2011年10月22日 星期六

Asian manufacturing activity slows in June (AFP)

SHANGHAI (AFP) – Manufacturing activity in Asia's emerging economies slowed further in June, data showed Friday, suggesting measures designed to cool explosive growth were taking hold in the region.

Export-dependent nations were also hurt by a continued weakness in demand from crisis-hit Europe and the United States while Japanese suppliers were still recovering from the impact of the March 11 earthquake and tsunami.

Growth in Chinese production almost stalled while India's figures hit a nine-month low as monetary tightening measures firmly put the brakes on two of the region's biggest and fastest-growing economies.

Taiwan data showed manufacturing activity actually contracted while South Korea was also crimped by inflation-fighting measures.

Beijing has been clamping down on bank lending to tame inflation, which hit a three-year high 5.5 percent in May, and avoid the economy blowing out of control as it has been expanding at nearly 10 percent a year.

China's manufacturing activity fell to an 11-month low of 50.1 in June from 51.6 in May, the British banking giant said in a statement, confirming preliminary data released last week, as Beijing tries to tame soaring costs.

The country's official purchasing managers index also fell for the third straight month to 50.9 in June from 52.0 in May, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said earlier Friday.

A reading above 50 indicates the sector is expanding while a reading below 50 suggests a contraction.

"This implies that policy tightening is working, pointing to a peak of inflation in the coming months," HSBC chief economist Qu Hongbin said in a statement.

The figures will likely fuel concerns that the world's second-largest economy is heading for a hard landing as Beijing -- anxious about inflation's potential to spark social unrest -- tries to rein in food and housing prices.

"The continued easing in June PMI figures, mainly due to inventory adjustments, suggests economic growth is likely to continue to slow," Zhang Liqun, a government analyst, said in the CFLP statement.

Both surveys for China also show inflationary pressures -- a bugbear for policymakers -- eased last month. The official input prices sub-index, which measures the cost of raw materials, fell to 56.7 in June from 60.3 in May.

India's PMI fell to 55.3 in June -- from May's 57.5 -- marking its slowest pace so far this year while input costs rose.

The easing follows several interest rate hikes in the country, where the Congress-led government has vowed to tackle inflation -- even at the cost of slower growth -- to help the hundreds of millions of poverty-stricken.

The central bank raised its key interest rates last month after inflation hit a higher-than-expected 9.06 percent in May, from 8.66 percent the previous month, with food prices rising even faster.

"These numbers confirm that tight capacity and monetary tightening is constraining growth," Leif Eskesen, chief economist for India and Asean at HSBC, told Dow Jones Newswires.

Compounding problems for companies was Japan's March 11 twin disaster, which wrecked supply lines while the stuttering recovery in Europe and the United States from the global downturn also hit demand.

The earthquake and tsunami has "hurt a lot of manufacturers, they are trying to stretch out their inventories", Moody's Economy.com associate economist Alaistair Chan told AFP.

"Also in the medium term you have got a downturn in the global economy."

South Korea's PMI slowed to 51.13 in June from 51.24 in May as Seoul treads a fine line between fighting inflation with interest rate hikes and trying to cap foreign inflows of cash it fears could destabilise the economy.

Manufacturing activity in Taiwan shrank to 49.9 in June from 54.9 in May.


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2011年10月15日 星期六

China manufacturing slows: omen for weaker growth (AP)

SHANGHAI – Chinese manufacturing slipped to its slowest pace in 28 months in June, sapped by inflation-fighting curbs on credit and weaker overseas demand, according to surveys released Friday.

The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said its monthly purchasing managers index fell to 50.9 in June from 52 in May, 52.9 in April and 53.4 in March. The index has remained above 50, the benchmark for expansion, for 26 straight months.

The report said the trend likely augurs a further slowdown in growth brought on by inflation-fighting curbs on credit.

London-based HSBC said its survey of 400 companies, which is adjusted for seasonal factors, signaled a decline in manufacturing production for the first time since July 2010, though the pace of decline was marginal.

The HSBC index slipped to 50.1 in June from 51.6 in May, with the slowest increase in new orders in 11 months, it said, attributing the weakness to subdued global demand. But input cost increases also slowed, reducing inflationary pressures.

The reading for June "implies that policy tightening is working, pointing to a peak of inflation in the coming months," Hongbin Qu, chief economist and head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, said in a statement.

The government-affiliated Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said its survey showed declines were greatest in the production, new orders, purchasing volume and prices for raw materials indices. The survey also showed a contraction in production of chemicals, textiles, and transportation equipment. Imports and new export orders also slowed.

The survey "indicates that future economic growth may continue to decrease," federation analyst Zhang Liqun said. But he said the results of the survey did not suggest China would face a "deeper correction."

Driven by double-digit surges in food costs, inflation rose to a 34-month high of 5.5 percent in May. After months of forecasting it would moderate by midyear, China is expected to announce inflation in June surged above 6 percent.

Many inside China expect authorities to raise key interest rates sometime soon, in a fifth hike since October, to counter surging costs. Beijing has repeatedly ordered state-owned banks to boost their reserves, aiming to curb excess credit.


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